Succession After Khamenei

Iranian TV aired footage Sunday of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addressing a group of environmental officials at his residence in central Tehran. The appearance came on the heels of wild speculation in the international press that the Supreme Leader had died. Such rumors have gained in ferocity ever since the ayatollah’s September 8, 2014 prostate surgery. While his doctor called it “a routine procedure,” others saw the operation as a sign that the end was near.

Obviously, every rumor about Khamenei’s death to date has been false.  But the passing of Khamenei, now 75, will one day represent a seismic shift in the Islamic Republic. With no successor-designate, Khamenei’s death will exacerbate a power struggle that is already underway.

Officially, the 86 members of the Assembly of Experts, headed by acting chairman Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, anoints the next leader of the revolution. Behind the scenes, however, the major power brokers – whether they have a seat in the assembly or not – will jockey for power and play a role in building consensus. This was the case after the passing of Grand Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini in 1989.

The factional balance of power is likely to be clarified at the assembly’s meeting tomorrow, which will elect a new chairman to succeed the late Ayatollah Mohammad-Reza Mahdavi Kani. According to Ayatollah Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani, candidates will include Shahroudi (67), the acting chairman, former president Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (80), and the ayatollahs Ahmad Jannati (90), Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah Yazdi (80), and Mohammad Yazdi (83). The election result does not automatically determine who will be the next leader, but will provide a strong sense of the balance of power amongst the top clergy.

On the margins of the Assembly drama, another clash is taking place between the regime’s technocrats, represented by Rafsanjani and his protégé President Hassan Rouhani in one camp, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which controls the elite military and economic structures that have long served as Khamenei’s power base. Rouhani has indirectly accused the IRGC of economic corruption, and the IRGC Intelligence Organization has fired back by arresting businessmen close to Rafsanjani and Rouhani on corruption and embezzlement charges. Major General Mohammad-Ali Jafari, IRGC chief commander, has consistently warned Iran’s nuclear negotiators against selling out “achievements of the Islamic revolution,” and has more recently accused Rafsanjani of “claiming to be a revolutionary and a follower of the Imam [Khomeini], but tries to halt the Islamic revolution.”

The outcome of the overall struggle for power within the regime, both in and outside of the Assembly of Experts, will influence the selection of the next leader after Khamenei. It may also influence Iran’s ability to honor any agreement the P5+1 reaches with the current leadership in Tehran.

Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies