September 18, 2014 | Quote
Experts See Qatar Making Tactical Adjustment, Not Dropping Islamist Support
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David Andrew Weinberg, a specialist on Gulf affairs and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Post that “Qatar’s foreign policy gains a lot in the short term from backing radical Islamists, but occasionally it has demonstrated a willingness to temper this support in response to consistent, targeted pressure from the outside.
“The Qataris would not be encouraging members of the Muslim Brotherhood – and now, apparently, Al-Gamaa al-Islamiya [another Egypt-based Sunni Islamist movement] as well – to depart without serious concerted threats from other GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] members,” Weinberg said. “Indeed, if the press reports are an accurate indication of what transpired, Qatar very possibly was facing serious additional sanctions from Saudi Arabia and the UAE leading up to the GCC summit at the end of August.”
The threat from Islamic State persuaded the Saudis to freeze their effort to punish Qatar, but “the handful of Brotherhood leaders who have already started leaving Qatar indicates that Doha didn’t get away without making any concessions,” he said.
“But Saudi Arabia – and especially the UAE, which is focused in on the Brotherhood issue with laser precision – are not going to be satisfied with only cosmetic changes to Qatari policy,” Weinberg argued.
Asked about the Al-Hayat report and possible additional deportations, Weinberg said it is unclear whether Qatar is going to follow through. “We’ve heard rumors of this sort before, but up until now all of the verifiable Qatari concessions on the Brotherhood issue have been insignificant.
“Qatar is making tactical concessions to prevent certain targeted costs that could be imposed by its neighbors,” he said, noting that there are no broader indications of Qatar going through a strategic realignment.
Further, Weinberg asserted that Gulf states and Egypt are likely to be unhappy with the concessions that Qatar has on offer. Egypt demands the Islamists be handed over for trial, “something that is clearly not in the works,” he said.
Also, there is no evidence that Qatar is preparing to deport senior Hamas officials, including its top leader, Khaled Mashaal, Weinberg said.
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