February 26, 2015 | Press Release

New Report by FDD Scholar Outlines Civil War in Libya

WASHINGTON- A new report authored by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, outlines how Libya’s civil war between the Dignity and Dawn campaigns empowers jihadist groups like the Islamic State and threatens the safety of Europe. The report, “Dignity and Dawn: Libya’s Escalating Civil War,” published by The International Centre for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague (ICCT), analyzes the political turmoil that has consumed Libya since the overthrow of dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, and the difficult decisions that must be made to halt the advance of Islamic extremists.

The report, co-authored with Nathaniel Barr, a threat analyst at the Valens Global consulting firm, chronicles the recent rise of numerous militia factions that were not beholden to any government. These unaccountable militias have led to an environment of lawlessness in areas of Libya and widespread discontent among the people.

“While considerable uncertainty exists about the internal dynamics of the Dignity and Dawn coalitions, the implications of the conflict on regional stability are increasingly clear,” the report says. “The Dignity- Dawn clash has contributed to the deterioration of the Libyan state, creating ungoverned spaces that are being exploited by violent non-state actors — the Islamic State being prominent among them in 2015.”

On May 16, 2014, Khalifa Hifter, a former officer in Qaddafi’s military, harnessed the growing discontent in Libya by launching Operation Dignity in the city of Benghazi. The campaign called for the dissolution of the General National Congress (GNC), Libya’s democratically elected body.

“The leading political bloc in the GNC—which was comprised of Islamist political parties, members of the Berber ethnic group, and former revolutionaries from the city of Misrata, among others—viewed Operation Dignity’s raid as a direct assault on its power,” according to the report. “Indeed, the Islamist-Misrata bloc’s greatest fears were realized in the June 25 parliamentary elections, which resulted in electoral gains for a nationalist-federalist coalition hostile to the Islamist-Misrata bloc’s agenda.”

According to the report, the Islamist-Misrata bloc, feeling threatened by their loss of power, formed a counter-offensive to Operation Dignity, known as Operation Dawn, which seized control of the capital of Tripoli. In the following months, Dawn forces reconvened the GNC, while the international community recognized its adversaries in Libya’s House of Representatives as Libya’s legitimate legislative authority.

The report gives a detailed analysis of the phases in the conflict between Dignity and Dawn:

  • The early months of the Operation Dignity offensive in Benghazi.
  • The month-long Operation Dawn campaign in Tripoli, which culminated in the destruction of the city’s airport and the withdrawal of Dignity-aligned Zintani militias from the capital in August 2014.
  • The Islamist counteroffensive in Benghazi, which lasted from mid-July until mid-October.
  • The Operation Dawn campaign in western Libya, which spanned from mid-August to the present.
  • Operation Dignity’s latest offensive in Benghazi, which began in mid-October and remains in progress.

The report concludes by presenting the costs and benefits of two possible strategies available to the United States and European Union: negotiations and military support for Dignity. Negotiations could lead to a better understanding of the various actors in control of Dawn and Dignity, Gartenstein-Ross says. If negotiations fail, the United States will have to decide whether or not it is worth supporting Dignity.

“There is no easy answer to the policy questions explored herein,” says Gartenstein-Ross. “But it is important that policymakers understand the course of the conflict, the mistakes that were made along the way, and what is at stake. They need to consider these policy questions with open eyes, rather than being blindsided when they are eventually forced to confront them.”

Gartenstein-Ross is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), an adjunct assistant professor in Georgetown University’s security studies program, and a lecturer at the Catholic University of America. His research and professional work focus on the challenges posed by violent non-state actors, with a concentration on the al-Qaeda network and other jihadist groups. Gartenstein-Ross is the author or volume editor of 17 books and monographs, and has published widely in the popular and academic press. He frequently conducts field research in relevant regions, including North Africa and the Persian Gulf.

You can view the full report here.

About the Foundation for Defense of Democracies:
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) is a non-profit, non-partisan 501(c)3 policy institute focusing on foreign policy and national security. Founded in 2001, FDD combines policy research, democracy and counterterrorism education, strategic communications and investigative journalism in support of its mission to promote pluralism, defend democratic values and fight the ideologies that drive terrorism. Visit our website at www.defenddemocracy.org and connect with us on TwitterFacebook and YouTube.

Media Contact:
Matthew E. Berger, Senior Director of Communications
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Issues:

Libya