Portugal’s Palestinian Recognition Adds Momentum to Diplomatic Push

The Portuguese parliament on Friday called on the government to recognize an independent Palestinian state. The motion was filed on behalf of both the center-right and socialist parties, and it urged the government to recognize Palestine “in coordination with the European Union” at the “most appropriate moment.” The Portuguese parliament appears to have tempered its motion, however, when it reaffirmed that “only negotiations can ensure security and peace in this region.” That caveat, however, will be little consolation to the Israeli government, which views a recent wave of Palestinian recognition in Europe as a diplomatic threat to the parameters laid out in the Oslo Accords. The Portuguese measure, tempered or not, is another point of leverage in the Palestinians’ ongoing and increasingly successful diplomatic campaign against Israel.

The Portuguese are only the latest in a string of European countries to support Palestinian recognition. In October, the UK parliament voted 274-12 in favor of recognizing Palestine “as a contribution to securing a negotiated two-state solution.” Soon after, the Swedish government announced it would recognize a Palestinian state to “give hope to young Palestinians and Israelis that there is an alternative to violence.” In November, Spain’s parliament joined the club, and more recently, so did those of France and Ireland.

France, in particular, appears to be the focus of the Palestinian campaign: French officials have repeatedly stated that should the status quo persist, they would be willing to host an international convention on the peace process, something the Palestinians have been championing in recent months. And now, France is set to introduce a draft resolution at the U.N. Security Council for Palestinian recognition that would temper the Palestinian draft resolution enough to potentially avoid a U.S. veto. 

For the Palestinians, the campaign will not end with European recognition. Ramallah seeks to replace the U.S.’s role as mediator in the conflict with a more international conglomerate. In the eyes of the PLO leadership, the EU countries will serve as a counter-balance to a perceived U.S. bias toward Israeli security demands. Moreover, the presence of two of the countries whose parliaments have voted in favor of recognition (France and the UK) on the Security Council raises the question of whether a statehood resolution could finally pass after three years of effort. The Security Council, after all, is the only forum that can approve the Palestinian campaign to become the United Nations’ 194^th country. 

To be sure, the EU alone cannot dictate foreign policy, and Portugal is not exactly a powerhouse among European governments. Nonetheless, the growing European consensus over recognition of a Palestinian state gives significant momentum to Ramallah’s ongoing diplomatic campaign. 

Grant Rumley is a research analyst at Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Find him on Twitter, @Grant_Rumley.