In Gaza, Israel Faces New Jihadist Threats On Top Of A Wounded Hamas

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“Hamas has been on the brink of collapse,” Jonathan Schanzer, vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told JNS.org. “It has become very isolated politically and economically.”

“It is very difficult to figure out what Hamas’s calculus is [in its current escalation with Israel],” Schanzer added. “Hamas may have nothing to lose, but on the other hand, they could have really overplayed their hand, which could lead to complete devastation of their assets.”

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“This time the Egyptians will not help [Hamas] out in this mess,” Schanzer told JNS.org, referring to previous Egypt-brokered ceasefire deals between Israel and Hamas such as the one that ended the November 2012 Israel-Gaza conflict. 

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“It is a question of whether it is in Israel’s interest to weaken [Hamas] further or even destroy the terror organization,” said Schanzer.

“It is clear that [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu did not want to escalate things with Hamas. With the fallout of the Arab Spring, the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and the Iranian nuclear program, this was not the right time and Hamas did not pose a strategic threat right now,” he said.

At the same time, if Hamas becomes severely weakened, Salafi jihadist groups or Islamic Jihad may use the opportunity to seize control of Gaza.

“[Israeli operations] might create a vacuum where it can give rise to other jihadi groups who would be worse than Hamas,” Schanzer said.

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“Whether this becomes an all-out war really depends on the amount of rockets fired out of Gaza,” Schanzer said. “It is up to Hamas.”

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