Turkey’s Inquiry into Corruption Charges Will Change Little

The Turkish parliament last week debated corruption allegations against four former ministers and approved a resolution to establish an inquiry commission. Upon completing its investigation, the commission will vote on whether to impeach the ministers who resigned their posts but still serve as AKP deputies. The debate and commission are effectively the first official acknowledgment of the corruption charges against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) which first came to light in December 2013.

The corruption allegations, leaked primarily over Twitter between December 2013 and March 2014, revealed that Turkish prosecutors were actively investigating the illicit financial activities of the four ministers, as well as a large network of businesses believed to be tied to Iranian-Turkish businessman Reza Zarrab. Zarrab has been charged with gold smuggling and money laundering activities. The leaked prosecutor’s report alleges that his network spanned Turkey, Iran, Dubai, and China, and it processed some €87 billion in illicit transactions.

While the creation of the commission appears to be a victory for rule of law, it is unlikely that its members will move to impeach the ministers, even if sufficient evidence is produced; nine of the 15 will be AKP deputies. The General Assembly, also dominated by the AKP, will make the final decision after the commission makes its recommendation.

The AKP has systematically worked to undermine the investigations since the corruption scandal erupted in December. The government re-assigned thousands of policemen and prosecutors involved in the investigation. The new prosecutor, assigned by the Erdogan government, dismissed the original investigation and is set to re-write the indictment. The AKP has also passed amendments to Turkey’s penal code that undermines evidence collected through wiretapping, which was the main method of gathering evidence for this investigation.

Turkey’s legislative and election schedules also work against the likelihood of impeachment. According to the Constitution, the commission has two months to submit its report. However, the process will almost certainly be delayed when parliament breaks for summer recess. This will be followed by the presidential election process, which begins in July. For these reasons, the independent Turkish daily Hurriyet predicts that the commission may not resume work until October.

A delay in the impeachment proceedings could have several ramifications. For one, an atmosphere of mistrust lingers among Turkey’s opposition. This could exacerbate the political polarization leading up to the August presidential elections. Second, an atmosphere of mistrust will linger among the international banking community, which could impact Turkey’s standing. The AKP government is in no hurry to address the charges that it helped process Zarrab’s €87 billion in illicit financial transactions on behalf of Iran at the height of the sanctions regime. Zarrab, too, is yet to stand trial for these very serious accusations.

Merve Tahiroglu is a research associate at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, focusing on Turkey.